Mammographic density is a strong predictor of breast cancer but only slightly increased the discriminatory ability of existing risk prediction models in previous studies with limited racial diversity. We assessed discrimination and calibration of models consisting of the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System density and quantitative density measures. Patients were followed up from the date of first screening mammogram until invasive breast cancer diagnosis or 5-year follow-up. Areas under the curve for White women stayed consistently around 0.59 for all models, whereas the area under the curve increased slightly from 0.60 to 0.62 when adding dense area and area percent density to the BCRAT model for Black women. All women saw underprediction in all models, with Black women having less underprediction. Adding quantitative density to the BCRAT did not statistically significantly improve prediction for White or Black women. Future studies should evaluate whether volumetric breast density improves risk prediction.
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.