The impact of urban population spatial distribution on CO2 emissions in China from the perspective of individual and interactive effects

Abstract

As China's rapid urbanization continues, uneven urban population spatial distribution (UPSD) has a profound impact on its CO₂ emissions. To understand how UPSD shapes CO₂ emissions in China, this study employs geographic detectors to analyze the spatial stratified heterogeneity patterns of urban CO₂ emissions and explore the spatial individual and interactive effects of UPSD in 2005 and 2015. Results show that CO₂ emissions increased significantly from 2005 to 2015, especially in developed cities and resource-based cities. The spatial individual effect of UPSD on spatial stratified heterogeneity pattern of CO₂ emissions has gradually increased in the North Coast, South Coast, the Middle Yellow River, and the Middle Yangtze River. The interaction of UPSD and urban transportation infrastructure, urban economic development, and urban industrial structure plays a more important role on the North Coast and East Coast than in other city groups in 2005. In 2015, the interaction between UPSD and urban research and development was the traction of mitigating CO₂ emissions in developed city groups, especially on the North Coast and East Coast. Moreover, the spatial interaction between the UPSD and urban industrial structure has gradually weakened in developed city groups, which means UPSD drives the prosperity of the service industry, thus contributing to the low-carbon development of Chinese cities.

Keywords: Geographical detector; Spatial individual driving effect; Spatial interactive driving effect; Urban CO2 emissions; Urban population spatial distribution.