The prediction of the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of vegetation cover in the Huainan mining area and the quantitative evaluation of its driving factors are of great significance for protecting and restoring the environment in this area. This study uses the Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI time-series data to estimate the vegetation cover and uses the transition matrix to analyze the spatiotemporal transfer of vegetation cover from 1989 to 2004, 2004 to 2021, and 2021 to 2030. In addition, a structural equation model (SEM) was established in this study to assess the driving factors of vegetation cover. The quantitative analysis and the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model were performed to predict the future vegetation cover in the Huainan mining area. The results are as follows: (1) In different periods, the vegetation cover types were mainly high cover types transferred to other vegetation cover types; (2) human activities are the key factors affecting the vegetation growth, while topographical factor is the most influential factor promoting the vegetation growth; (3) highly consistent CA-Markov and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) predicted results of vegetation cover in 2030 compared to that in 2021. The proportion of bare soil and low cover types had increased significantly, mainly concentrated in the internal area of the mines. The prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation cover in the Huainan mining area and the quantitative change in driving factors are of significant importance for the restoration of the environment in mining areas.
Keywords: CA-Markov. Driving factor; Huainan mining area; NDVI; Structural equation model.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.