Prediction of risk and overall survival of pancreatic cancer from blood soluble immune checkpoint-related proteins

Abstract

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibition holds promise as a novel treatment for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The clinical significance of soluble immune checkpoint (ICK) related proteins have not yet fully explored in PDAC.

Methods: We comprehensively profiled 14 soluble ICK-related proteins in plasma in 70 PDAC patients and 70 matched healthy controls. Epidemiological data of all subjects were obtained through structured interviews, and patients' clinical data were retrieved from electronical health records. We evaluated the associations between the biomarkers with the risk of PDAC using unconditional multivariate logistic regression. Consensus clustering (k-means algorithm) with significant biomarkers was performed to identify immune subtypes in PDAC patients. Prediction models for overall survival (OS) in PDAC patients were developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were utilized to evaluate performance of prediction models. Gene expressions of the identified ICK-related proteins in tumors from TCGA were analyzed to provide insight into underlying mechanisms.

Results: Soluble BTLA, CD28, CD137, GITR and LAG-3 were significantly upregulated in PDAC patients (all q < 0.05), and elevation of each of them was correlated with PDAC increased risk (all p < 0.05). PDAC patients were classified into soluble immune-high and soluble immune-low subtypes, using these 5 biomarkers. Patients in soluble immune-high subtype had significantly poorer OS than those in soluble immune-low subtype (log-rank p = 9.7E-03). The model with clinical variables and soluble immune subtypes had excellent predictive power (C-index = 0.809) for the OS of PDAC patients. Furthermore, the immune subtypes identified with corresponding genes' expression in PDAC tumor samples in TCGA showed an opposite correlation with OS to that of immune subtypes based on blood soluble ICK-related proteins (log-rank p =0.02). The immune-high subtype tumors displayed higher cytolytic activity (CYT) score than immune-low subtype tumors (p < 2E-16).

Conclusion: Five soluble ICK-related proteins were identified to be significantly associated with the risk and prognosis of PDAC. Patients who were classified as soluble immune-low subtype based on these biomarkers had better overall survival than those of the soluble immune-high subtype.

Keywords: immune subtype; pancreatic cancer; prediction model; soluble immune checkpoint-related protein; survival.