GIS based hotspot analysis and health risk assessment of groundwater arsenic from an unconfined deep aquifer of Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Use of groundwater for drinking purpose poses serious hazards of arsenic contamination particularly in plains of western Himalayan region. Therefore, current study was designed to investigate the level of Arsenic (As) in the water obtained from tubewells in a metropolitan city of Lahore, Pakistan and assess the human health risk. So, a total of 73 tubewells were sampled randomly in the manner that the whole study region was covered without any clustering. The water samples were analyzed for As using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. These samples were also tested for total dissolved solids, chlorides, pH, alkalinity, turbidity, hardness and calcium. GIS based hotspots analysis technique was used to investigate the spatial distribution patterns. Our results revealed that only one sample out of total 73 had arsenic level below the WHO guideline of 10 μg/L. The spatial distribution map of arsenic revealed that the higher concentrations of arsenic are present in the north-western region of Lahore. The cluster and outlier analysis map using Anselin Local Moran's I statistic indicated the presence of an arsenic cluster in the west of River Ravi. Furthermore, the optimized hotspot analysis based on Getis-Ord Gi* statistics confirmed the statistical significance (P < 0.05) and (P < 0.01) of these samples from the vicinity of River Ravi. Regression analysis showed that variables such as turbidity, alkalinity, hardness, chlorides, calcium and total dissolved solids were significantly (all P < 0.05) associated with level of Arsenic in tubewells. Whereas, PH and electrical conductivity and other variables like town, year of installation, depth and diameter of the wells were not significantly associated with Arsenic concentrations in tubewells. Principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited that the random distribution of tubewell samples showed no distinct clustering with towns studied. Health risk assessment based on hazard and Cancer risk index revealed serious risk of developing carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic diseases particularly in children. The health risk due to prevalence of high As concentration in tubewells' water need to be mitigated immediately to avoid worst consequences in future.

Keywords: Anselin local Moran's I; Arsenic; Cluster outlier analysis; Getis-Ord Gi* statistics; Groundwater; Heath risk assessment; Hotspot analysis.