Spatial distribution, sources, and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in cultivated soils using isotopic tracing techniques and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in cultivated lands pose serious threats to the environment and human health. Therefore, improving the understanding of their distinct sources and environmental risks by integrating various methods is necessary. This study investigated the distribution, sources, and environmental risks of eight PTEs in cultivated soils in Lishui City, eastern China, using digital soil mapping, positive matrix factorisation (PMF), isotopic tracing, and Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that Pb and Cd are the main pollutants, which posed higher ecological risks in the study area than the other PTEs. Natural, mining, traffic, and agricultural sources were identified as the four determinants of PTE accumulation via a PMF model combined with Pearson correlation analysis, showing that their contribution rates were 22.6 %, 45.7 %, 15.2 %, and 16.5 %, respectively. Stable isotope analysis further confirmed that local mining activities affected the HM accumulation. Additionally, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk values for children were 3.18 % and 3.75 %, respectively, exceeding their acceptable levels. We also identified that mining activities were the most important sources of human health risks (55.7 % for adults and 58.6 % for children) via Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the PMF model. Overall, this study provides insights into the PTE pollution management and health risk control in cultivated soils.

Keywords: Cultivated land; Potentially toxic elements; Probabilistic health risk; Source identification; Spatial distribution.