Prediction of recurrence of ischemic stroke within 1 year of discharge based on machine learning MRI radiomics

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the value of a machine learning-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics model in predicting the risk of recurrence within 1 year following an acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods: The MRI and clinical data of 612 patients diagnosed with AIS at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from March 1, 2019, to March 5, 2021, were obtained. The patients were divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to whether they had a recurrent stroke within 1 year after discharge. Randomized splitting was used to divide the data into training and validation sets using a ratio of 7:3. Two radiologists used the 3D-slicer software to label the lesions on brain diffusion-weighted (DWI) MRI sequences. Radiomics features were extracted from the annotated images using the pyradiomics software package, and the features were filtered using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis. Four machine learning algorithms, logistic regression (LR), Support Vector Classification (SVC), LightGBM, and Random forest (RF), were used to construct a recurrence prediction model. For each algorithm, three models were constructed based on the MRI radiomics features, clinical features, and combined MRI radiomics and clinical features. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive efficacy of the models.

Results: Twenty features were selected from 1,037 radiomics features extracted from DWI images. The LightGBM model based on data with three different features achieved the best prediction accuracy from all 4 models in the validation set. The LightGBM model based solely on radiomics features achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.65, 0.671, and 0.647, respectively, and the model based on clinical data achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.7, 0.799, 0.735, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of the LightGBM model base on both radiomics and clinical features achieved the best performance with a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.85, 0.805, 0.789, respectively.

Conclusion: The ischemic stroke recurrence prediction model based on LightGBM achieved the best prediction of recurrence within 1 year following an AIS. The combination of MRI radiomics features and clinical data improved the prediction performance of the model.

Keywords: diffusion-weighted imaging; ischemic stroke; machine learning; radiomics; recurrence prediction.