Background: The role of recurrence-free survival (RFS) as a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients who underwent upfront surgery for colorectal liver metastases remains uncertain. The aim of the study was to compare the two survival measures in a nationwide cohort of upfront resected colorectal liver metastasis.
Methods: Data from patients with colorectal liver metastases without extrahepatic metastases who underwent curative surgery for liver metastases were retrieved from the Japanese nationwide database (data collection 2005-2007 and 2013-2014). RFS, OS, and survival after recurrence were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The correlation (ρ) between RFS and OS was assessed using the rank correlation method combined with iterative multiple imputation, to account for censoring. As a secondary analysis, the correlation was evaluated according to adjuvant chemotherapy regimen. In sensitivity analysis, the pairwise correlation between RFS and OS was calculated.
Results: A total of 2385 patients with colorectal liver metastases were included. In the primary analysis, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS (ρ = 0.73, 95 per cent c.i. 0.70 to 0.76). The strength of the correlation was similar regardless of the adjuvant treatment regimen (oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil: ρ = 0.72, 0.67 to 0.77; 5-fluorouracil alone: ρ = 0.72, 0.66 to 0.76; observation: ρ = 0.74, 0.69 to 0.78). The mean(s.d.) pairwise correlation coefficient between 3-year RFS and 5-year OS was 0.87(0.06).
Conclusion: In surgically treated patients with colorectal liver metastases, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS, which was unaffected by the treatment regimen. Further validation using a trial-level analysis is required.
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