A spatiotemporal reconstruction of the 1630 plague epidemic in Milan

Massimo Galli; Riccardo Nodari; Matteo Perini; Ester Luconi; Luca Fois; Folco Vaglienti; Claudio Bandi; Elia Biganzoli; Francesco Comandatore

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106704

A spatiotemporal reconstruction of the 1630 plague epidemic in Milan

iScience. 2023 Apr 20;26(5):106704. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106704. eCollection 2023 May 19.

Authors

Massimo Galli¹, Riccardo Nodari², Matteo Perini^{2

3}, Ester Luconi¹, Luca Fois⁴, Folco Vaglienti⁵, Claudio Bandi⁶, Elia Biganzoli¹, Francesco Comandatore²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
² Romeo ed Enrica Invernizzi Paediatric Research Centre, Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
³ Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
⁴ Department of Humanities, Section of Historical and Geographical Science, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
⁵ Department of Historical Studies, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
⁶ Romeo ed Enrica Invernizzi Paediatric Research Centre, Department of Biosciences, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

Abstract

In 1630, a devastating plague epidemic struck Milan, one of the most important Italian cities of that time, deeply affecting its demography and economy for decades. The lack of digitized historical data strongly limits our comprehension of that important event. In this work, we digitized and analyzed the Milan death registers of 1630. The study revealed that the epidemic evolved differently among the areas of the city. Indeed, we were able to group the parishes of the city (comparable with modern neighborhoods) in two groups based on their epidemiological curves. These different epidemiological progressions could reflect socio-economical and/or demographic features specific of the neighborhoods, opening questions about the relationship between these features and the evolution of epidemics in the pre-modern period. The study of historical records, like the one presented here, can help us to better understand European history and pre-modern epidemics.

Keywords: Biological sciences; Health sciences; Microbiology.