The supply and demand of water-related ecosystem services in the Asian water tower and its downstream area

Lei Li; Chunyang He; Jingwei Li; Jinxi Zhang; Jian Li

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164205

The supply and demand of water-related ecosystem services in the Asian water tower and its downstream area

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Aug 20:887:164205. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164205. Epub 2023 May 13.

Authors

Lei Li¹, Chunyang He², Jingwei Li³, Jinxi Zhang¹, Jian Li¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining, China. Electronic address: hcy@bnu.edu.cn.
³ School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences (SEGS), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China.

PMID: 37187399
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164205

Abstract

Climate change and human activities can have an impact on the supply and demand of water-related ecosystem services (WRESs) in the Asian water tower (AWT) and its downstream area, which is closely related to the production and livelihoods of billions of people. However, few studies have taken the AWT and its downstream area as a whole to assess the supply-demand relationship of WRESs. This study aims to assess the future trends of the supply-demand relationship of WRESs in the AWT and its downstream area. Here, the supply-demand relationship of WRESs in 2019 was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and socio-economic data. Then, future scenarios were selected under the framework of the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP). Finally, trends in the supply-demand of WRESs were analysed at multiple scales from 2020 to 2050. The study found that the supply-demand imbalance of WRESs in the AWT and its downstream area will continue to intensify. The area with imbalance intensification was 2.38 × 10⁶ km² (61.7 %). The supply-demand ratio of WRESs will decline significantly under different scenarios (p < 0.05). The main reason for the imbalance intensification in WRESs is the constant growth of human activities, with a relative contribution of 62.8 %. Our findings suggest that in addition to the pursuit of climate mitigation and adaptation, attention should also be paid to the impact of rapid human activity growth on the supply-demand imbalance of WRESs.

Keywords: Asian water tower; Future trend; Multiscale analysis; Supply–demand relationship; Water-related ecosystem services.