Associated factors for mortality in a COVID-19 colombian cohort: is the third wave relevant when Mu variant was predominant epidemiologically?

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the association between Colombia's third wave when the Mu variant was predominant epidemiologically (until 75%) in Colombia and COVID-19 all-cause in-hospital mortality.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort, we included hospitalized patients ≥18 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 to September 2021 in ten hospitals from three cities in Colombia. Description analysis, survival, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the third epidemic wave and in-hospital mortality.

Results: A total of 25,371 patients were included. The age-stratified time-to-mortality curves showed differences according to epidemic waves in patients ≥75 years (log-rank test p = 0.012). In the multivariate Cox analysis, the third wave was not associated with increased mortality relative to the first wave (aHR 0.95; 95%CI 0.84-1.08), but there was an interaction between age ≥75 years and the third wave finding a lower HR for mortality (aHR 0.56, 95%CI 0.36-0.86).

Conclusions: We did not find an increase in in-hospital mortality during the third epidemic wave in which the Mu variant was predominant in Colombia. The reduced hazard in mortality in patients ≥75 years hospitalized in the third wave could be explained by the high coverage of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in this population and patients with underlying conditions.

Keywords: Covid-19; Epidemic wave; Risk factors; Variant Mu.