BackgroundMeningococcus (Neisseria meningitidis) is the causative bacteria of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), a major cause of meningitis and sepsis. In 2015-16, an outbreak caused by serogroup C meningococci (MenC), belonging to the hyperinvasive strain ST-11(cc-11), resulted in 62 IMD cases in the region of Tuscany, Italy.AimWe aimed to estimate the key outbreak parameters and assess the impact of interventions used in the outbreak response.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-carrier-susceptible individual-based model of MenC transmission, accounting for transmission in households, schools, discos/clubs and the general community, which was informed by detailed data on the 2015-16 outbreak (derived from epidemiological investigations) and on the implemented control measures.ResultsThe outbreak reproduction number (Re) was 1.35 (95% prediction interval: 1.13-1.47) and the IMD probability was 4.6 for every 1,000 new MenC carriage episodes (95% confidence interval: 1.8-12.2). The interventions, i.e. chemoprophylaxis and vaccination of close contacts of IMD cases as well as age-targeted vaccination, were effective in reducing Re and ending the outbreak. Case-based interventions (including ring vaccination) alone would have been insufficient to achieve outbreak control. The definition of age groups to prioritise vaccination had a critical impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of control measures.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that there are no effective alternatives to widespread reactive vaccination during outbreaks of highly transmissible MenC strains. Age-targeted campaigns can increase the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. These results can be instrumental to define effective guidelines for the control of future meningococcal outbreaks caused by hypervirulent strains.
Keywords: Serogroup C meningococcus; agent-based model; contact tracing; outbreak control; vaccination.