Background: In Japan, "Blood Donation Promotion 2025," a blood donation target, was established based on a predicted blood donation rate of 5.7% in 2025, which was calculated by the Blood Donation Promotion Study Group (BD research group) of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using nationwide blood donation data through 2018. However, COVID-19 since 2020 may affect the blood donation rate in Japan.
Method: Data from 75.5 million blood donations from 2006 to 2020 was used. The age-period-cohort model (APC model) was applied to estimate age, period, and birth cohort factors on blood donation rate and to predict the age-specific blood donation rates from 2021 to 2035.
Results: The APC model was highly reproducible for blood donation rates (modified R2 = 0.99). The blood donation rate in 2020 was 6.0% (5.04 million), an increase compared to 2019. Comparing this study with the BD research group, the predicted blood donation rates in 2025 for those 16-19 years old and in 20s are lower (4.8% vs. 5.2% and 5.3% vs. 5.5%) but those among 50s and 60s are higher (7.9% vs. 7.5% and 4.2% vs. 3.9%, respectively).
Discussion: The number of blood donations in 2020 increased despite COVID-19 and it proved that the blood donation promotion was effective. The different age-specific blood donation rates between our study and the report of BD research group infers the effect of COVID-19 on blood donation were differed by age and suggested the need for different approaches to blood donation promotion by generation.
Keywords: COVID-19; age-period-cohort model; blood donations; epidemiology.
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