Comparison of three risk assessment models for thromboembolism in multiple myeloma patients receiving immunomodulators: a Brazilian historical cohort

Abstract

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is among the complications of Multiple Myeloma (MM) and may occur in up to 10% of this patient population. However, medications used in MM therapy such as immunomodulators (IMID) may raise these rates. Thus, risk prediction models have been developed to quantify the risk of VTE in MM patients. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of three risk assessment models for VTE in newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) patients using immunomodulatory agents. A historical cohort study during a 10-year period in a Brazilian metropolis with NDMM treated with IMID. Data were collected from patient's medical charts for the period of one year to calculate the scores using IMPEDE VTE, SAVED, and International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) guidelines. The area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis was calculated to assess the discriminative power of three risk assessment models. We included 131 patients (9 in the VTE group versus 122 in the non VTE group). According to IMPEDE, 19.1, 62.6, and 18.3% of patients were considered low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. SAVED classified 32.1% as high risk and 64.9% had ≥2 risk factors based on IMWG guidelines. The AUC of the IMPEDE VTE score was 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.95, p = 0.002), of the SAVED score was 0.69 (95% CI 0.49-0.89, p = 0.057), and of the IMWG risk score was 0.68 (95% CI 0.48-0.88, p = 0.075). IMPEDE VTE was the most accurate in predicting the development of VTE in Brazilian patients on IMID therapy. The SAVED score and the IMWG guidelines did not show discriminative ability in predicting VTE based on the population involved in this study.

Keywords: Multiple myeloma; Risk assessment models; Venous thromboembolism.