SARS-CoV-2: Air pollution highly correlated to the increase in mortality. The case of Guadalajara, Jalisco, México

Elizabeth Torres-Anguiano; Itzel Sánchez-López; Angeles Garduno-Robles; Jorge David Rivas-Carrillo; Edgar Alfonso Rivera-León; Sergio Sánchez-Enríquez; Luis Fernando Ornelas-Hernández; Fernando Zazueta León-Quintero; Eduardo Narciso Salazar León-Quintero; Guillermo Enrique Juárez-López; Fernando Antonio Sánchez-Zubieta; Mariana Ochoa-Bru; Abraham Zepeda-Moreno

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.004

SARS-CoV-2: Air pollution highly correlated to the increase in mortality. The case of Guadalajara, Jalisco, México

Infect Dis Model. 2023 Jun;8(2):445-457. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.004. Epub 2023 Apr 20.

Authors

Elizabeth Torres-Anguiano^{1

2}, Itzel Sánchez-López^{1

2}, Angeles Garduno-Robles¹, Jorge David Rivas-Carrillo³, Edgar Alfonso Rivera-León⁴, Sergio Sánchez-Enríquez⁵, Luis Fernando Ornelas-Hernández¹, Fernando Zazueta León-Quintero^{1

2}, Eduardo Narciso Salazar León-Quintero⁶, Guillermo Enrique Juárez-López^{1

2}, Fernando Antonio Sánchez-Zubieta^{7

8}, Mariana Ochoa-Bru^{1

2}, Abraham Zepeda-Moreno^{1

2

7}

Affiliations

¹ Onkogenetik/Mexicana de Investigación y Biotectogía S.A. de C.V, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
² Unidad de Biología Molecular, Investigación y Diagnóstico, Hospital San Javier, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
³ Departamento de Fisiología, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
⁴ Departamento de Biología Molecular y Genómica, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
⁵ Departamento de Clínicas, Centro Universitario de los Altos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tepatitlán de Morelos, Jalisco, Mexico.
⁶ Hospital Civil de Guadalajara "Fray Antonio Alcalde", Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
⁷ Departamento de Clínicas Médicas, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.
⁸ Servicio de Hemato-Oncología Pediátrica, Hospital Civil de Guadalajara "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca", Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine whether air pollution or changes in SARS-CoV-2 lineages lead to an increase in mortality.

Methods: Descriptive statistics were used to calculate rates of infection (2020-2021). RT-PCR was used to compare viral loads from October 2020 to February 2021. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) (n = 92) was used to examine and phylogenetically map SARS-CoV-2 lineages. A correlative "air pollution/temperature" index (I) was developed using regression analysis. PM_2.5, PM₁₀, O₃, NO₂, SO₂, and CO concentrations were analyzed and compared to the mortality.

Results: The mortality rate during the last year was ∼32%. Relative SARS-CoV-2 viral loads increased in December 2020 and January 2021. NGS revealed that approximately 80% of SARS-CoV-2 linages were B.1.243 (33.7%), B1.1.222 (11.2%), B.1.1 (9%), B.1 (7%), B.1.1.159 (7%), and B.1.2 (7%). Two periods were analyzed, the prehigh- and high-mortality periods and no significant lineage differences or new lineages were found. Positive correlations of air pollution/temperature index values with mortality were found for IPM_2.5 and IPM₁₀. INO₂. ISO₂, and ICO but not for O₃. Using ICO, we developed a model to predict mortality with an estimated variation of ∼±5 deaths per day.

Conclusion: The mortality rate in the MZG was highly correlated with air pollution indices and not with SARS-CoV-2 lineage.

Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19; Guadalajara; Mexico; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV-2 lineages.