Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

Le Xu; Zhe Xu Cao; Xin Weng; Can Fei Wang

doi:10.3389/fendo.2023.1133098

Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2023 Apr 12:14:1133098. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1133098. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Le Xu¹, Zhe Xu Cao², Xin Weng³, Can Fei Wang⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Ren Ji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
² Department of Thyroid Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
³ Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Nanhua University, Hengyang, Hunan, China.
⁴ Department of Hematology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

Abstract

Background: In view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies.

Methods: The study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC.

Results: There was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries.

Conclusion: The trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease Study; age-period-cohort model; incidence; overdiagnosis; thyroid cancer.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adult
Aged
Female
Global Burden of Disease*
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Overdiagnosis
Thyroid Neoplasms* / epidemiology

Grants and funding

The research was supported by the Key Projects of Intergovernmental International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation (2019YFE0190500) and The Key Guidance Project of Scientific Research Subject of Hunan Provincial Health Commission (202204014372).