Building social resilience in North Korea can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security

Abstract

Adaptation based on social resilience is proposed as an effective measure to mitigate hunger and avoid food shocks caused by climate change. But these have not been investigated comprehensively in climate-sensitive regions. North Korea (NK) and its neighbours, South Korea and China, represent three economic levels that provide us with examples for examining climatic risk and quantifying the contribution of social resilience to rice production. Here our data-driven estimates show that climatic factors determined rice biomass changes in NK from 2000 to 2017, and climate extremes triggered reductions in production in 2000 and 2007. If no action is taken, NK will face a higher climatic risk (with continuous high-temperature heatwaves and precipitation extremes) by the 2080s under a high-emissions scenario, when rice biomass and production are expected to decrease by 20.2% and 14.4%, respectively, thereby potentially increasing hunger in NK. Social resilience (agricultural inputs and population development for South Korea; resource use for China) mitigated climate shocks in the past 20 years (2000-2019), even transforming adverse effects into benefits. However, this effect was not significant in NK. Moreover, the contribution of social resilience to food production in the undeveloped region (15.2%) was far below the contribution observed in the developed and developing regions (83.0% and 86.1%, respectively). These findings highlight the importance of social resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food security and human hunger and provide necessary quantitative information.