Prediction of Microsatellite Instability in Colorectal Cancer Using a Machine Learning Model Based on PET/CT Radiomics

Abstract

Purpose: We investigated the feasibility of preoperative ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) radiomics with machine learning to predict microsatellite instability (MSI) status in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

Materials and methods: Altogether, 233 patients with CRC who underwent preoperative FDG PET/CT were enrolled and divided into training (n=139) and test (n=94) sets. A PET-based radiomics signature (rad_score) was established to predict the MSI status in patients with CRC. The predictive ability of the rad_score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in the test set. A logistic regression model was used to determine whether the rad_score was an independent predictor of MSI status in CRC. The predictive performance of rad_score was compared with conventional PET parameters.

Results: The incidence of MSI-high was 15 (10.8%) and 10 (10.6%) in the training and test sets, respectively. The rad_score was constructed based on the two radiomic features and showed similar AUROC values for predicting MSI status in the training and test sets (0.815 and 0.867, respectively; p=0.490). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the rad_score was an independent predictor of MSI status in the training set. The rad_score performed better than metabolic tumor volume when assessed using the AUROC (0.867 vs. 0.794, p=0.015).

Conclusion: Our predictive model incorporating PET radiomic features successfully identified the MSI status of CRC, and it also showed better performance than the conventional PET image parameters.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer; image analysis; machine learning; microsatellite instability; positron emission tomography.