Importance: The association of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) with COVID-19 outcomes is unclear and needs to be investigated.
Objective: To identify the association of longitudinal changes in MVPA with SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes.
Design, setting, and participants: This nested case-control study used data from 6 396 500 adult patients in South Korean who participated in National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) biennial health screenings from period 1 (2017-2018) to period 2 (2019-2020). Patients were followed from October 8, 2020, until the diagnosis of COVID-19 or December 31, 2021.
Exposure: Moderate to vigorous physical activity was measured by self-report on questionnaires during both NHIS health screenings and calculated by adding the frequency (times per week) of each moderate (≥30 minutes per day) and vigorous (≥20 minutes per day) physical activity.
Main outcomes and measures: The main outcomes were a positive diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 clinical events. Adjusted odds ratio (aORs) and 99% CIs were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis.
Results: A total of 183 350 patients with COVID-19 (mean [SD] age, 51.9 [13.8] years; female, 89 369 [48.7%]; male, 93 981 [51.3%]) among 2 110 268 participants were identified. For participants with vs without COVID-19, the proportion of MVPA frequency at period 2 was 35.8% vs 35.9% for physically inactive, 18.9% vs 18.9% for 1 to 2 times per week, 17.7% vs 17.7% for 3 to 4 times per week, and 27.5% vs 27.4% for 5 or more times per week. Among unvaccinated, physically inactive patients at period 1, the odds for infection increased when engaged in MVPA 1 to 2 times per week (aOR, 1.08; 99% CI, 1.01-1.15), 3 to 4 times per week (aOR, 1.09; 99% CI, 1.03-1.16), or 5 or more times per week (aOR, 1.10; 99% CI, 1.04-1.17) at period 2. Conversely, among unvaccinated patients with MVPA of 5 or more times per week at period 1, the odds for infection decreased when engaged 1 to 2 times per week (aOR, 0.90; 99% CI, 0.81-0.98) or physically inactive (aOR, 0.80; 99% CI, 0.73-0.87) at period 2. The trend of MVPA and incident infection was mitigated when participants were fully vaccinated. Furthermore, the odds for severe COVID-19 showed significant but limited associations with MVPA.
Conclusions and relevance: The findings of this nested case-control study show a direct association of MVPA with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which was mitigated after completion of the COVID-19 vaccination primary series. In addition, higher levels of MVPA were associated with a lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes to limited proportions.