A novel scoring system for the quantitative prediction of prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia

Abstract

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous hematopoietic malignancy. Patient prognosis cannot be accurately assessed in National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk stratification subgroups based on the current criteria. This study aimed to develop a novel prognostic score model for the quantitative prediction of prognosis in AML.

Results: We developed a prognostic risk scoring model of AML using differentially expressed genes to predict prognosis in patients with AML. Furthermore, we evaluated the effectiveness and clinical significance of this prognostic model in 4 AML cohorts and 905 patients with AML. A prognostic risk scoring model of AML containing eight prognosis-related genes was constructed using a multivariate Cox regression model. The model had a higher predictive value for the prognosis of AML in the training and validation sets. In addition, patients with lower scores had significantly better overall survival (OS) and even-free survival (EFS) than those with higher scores among patients with intermediate-risk AML according to the NCCN guidelines, indicating that the model could be used to further predict the prognosis of the intermediate-risk AML populations. Similarly, patients with high scores had remarkably poor OS and EFS in the normal-karyotype populations, indicating that the scoring model had an excellent predictive performance for patients with AML having normal karyotype.

Conclusions: Our study provided an individualized prognostic risk score model that could predict the prognosis of patients with AML.

Keywords: AML; prognosis prediction; prognostic model; risk scoring model; risk stratification.