Is Fetal-Type Posterior Cerebral Artery a Risk Factor for Recurrence in Coiled Internal Carotid Artery-Incorporating Posterior Communicating Artery Aneurysms? Analysis of Conventional Statistics, Computational Fluid Dynamics, and Random Forest With Hyper-Ensemble Approach

Abstract

Background: The fetal-type posterior cerebral artery (FPCA) has been regarded as the risk factor for recurrence in coiled internal carotid artery-incorporating posterior communicating artery (ICA-PCoA) aneurysm. However, it has not been proven in previous literature studies.

Objective: To reveal the impact of FPCA on the recurrence of ICA-PCoA aneurysms using conventional statistical analysis, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, and random forest with hyper-ensemble approach (RF with HEA).

Methods: Vascular parameters and clinical information from patients who underwent coil embolization ICA-PCoA aneurysms from January 2011 to December 2016 were obtained. Conventional statistical analysis was applied to a total of 95 cases obtained from patients with a follow-up of more than 6 months. For CFD simulation, 3 sets of three-dimensional models were used to understand the hemodynamical characteristics of various FPCAs. The RF with HEA was applied to reinforce the clinical data analysis.

Results: The conventional statistical analysis fails to reveal that FPCA is a risk factor. CFD analysis shows that the diameter of FPCA alone is less likely to be a risk factor. The RF with HEA shows that the impact of FPCA is also minor compared with that of the packing density in the recurrence of coiled ICA-PCoA aneurysms.

Conclusion: The gathered results of all 3 analyses show more clear evidence that FPCA is not a risk factor for coiled ICA-PCoA aneurysms. Hence, we may conclude that FPCA itself is doubtful to be the major risk factor in the recurrence of coiled ICA-PCoA aneurysms.