BAP1-related signature predicts benefits from immunotherapy over VEGFR/mTOR inhibitors in ccRCC: a retrospective analysis of JAVELIN Renal 101 and checkmate-009/010/025 trials

Abstract

Background: In patients with advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma, despite the undoubted benefits from immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)-based therapies over monotherapies of angiogenic/mTOR inhibitors in the intention-to-treat population, approximately a quarter of the patients can scarcely gain advantage from ICIs, prompting the search for predictive biomarkers for patient selection.

Methods: Clinical and multi-omic data of 2428 ccRCC patients were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, n = 537), JAVELIN Renal 101 (avelumab plus axitinib vs. sunitinib, n = 885), and CheckMate-009/010/025 (nivolumab vs. everolimus, n = 1006).

Results: BAP1 mutations were associated with large progression-free survival (PFS) benefits from ICI-based immunotherapies over sunitinib/everolimus (pooled estimate of interaction HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.51-0.99, P = 0.045). Using the top 20 BAP1 mutation-associated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) generated from the TCGA cohort, we developed the BAP1-score, negatively correlated with angiogenesis and positively correlated with multiple immune-related signatures concerning immune cell infiltration, antigen presentation, B/T cell receptor, interleukin, programmed death-1, and interferon. A high BAP1-score indicated remarkable PFS benefits from ICI-based immunotherapies over angiogenic/mTOR inhibitors (avelumab plus axitinib vs. sunitinib: HR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.70, P < 0.001; nivolumab vs. everolimus: HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.52-1.00, P = 0.045), while these benefits were negligible in the low BAP1-score subgroup (HR = 1.16 and 1.02, respectively).

Conclusion: In advanced ccRCCs, the BAP1-score is a biologically and clinically significant predictor of immune microenvironment and the clinical benefits from ICI-based immunotherapies over angiogenic/mTOR inhibitors, demonstrating its potential utility in optimizing the personalized therapeutic strategies in patients with advanced ccRCC.

Keywords: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma; Immunotherapy; Predictive biomarker; The BAP1-score.