Epidemiological Trends of Kidney Cancer Along with Attributable Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Projections Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Qianqian Xu; Tingxiao Zhang; Tong Xia; Bin Jin; Hui Chen; Xiaorong Yang

doi:10.2147/CLEP.S400646

Epidemiological Trends of Kidney Cancer Along with Attributable Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Projections Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Clin Epidemiol. 2023 Mar 28:15:421-433. doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S400646. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Qianqian Xu^{1

2}, Tingxiao Zhang³, Tong Xia³, Bin Jin^{1

4}, Hui Chen^{5

6}, Xiaorong Yang^{5

6}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Organ Transplantation, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, People's Republic of China.
² The Key Laboratory of Infection and Immunity of Shandong Province, Department of Pharmacology, School of Basic Medical Science, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, People's Republic of China.
³ Organ Transplant Department, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, People's Republic of China.
⁴ Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250033, People's Republic of China.
⁵ Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China.
⁶ Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, People's Republic of China.

Abstract

Background: Understanding the past and future burden of kidney cancer in China over years provides essential references for optimizing the prevention and management strategies.

Methods: The data on incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of kidney cancer in China, 1990-2019, were collected from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the trends of kidney cancer burden, and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and mortality in the next decade.

Results: Over the past 30 years, the number of new kidney cancer cases sharply increased from 11.07 thousand to 59.83 thousand, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) tripled from 1.16/100,000 to 3.21/100,000. The mortality and DALYs also presented an increasing pattern. Smoking and high body mass index were mainly risk factors for kidney cancer. We predicted that by 2030, the incident cases and deaths of kidney cancer would increase to 126.8 thousand and 41.8 thousand, respectively.

Conclusion: In the past 30 years, the kidney cancer burden gradually increased in China, and it will continue to rise in the next decade, which reveals more targeted intervention measures are necessary.

Keywords: China; kidney neoplasms; projection; risk factors; trends.

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82103912); the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M700080); and the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2020QH302). The funders were not involved in the collection, analysis, or interpretation of data, or the writing or submitting of this report.