A Retrospective Modeling Study of the Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the Xinfadi Outbreak in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic - Beijing, China, 2020

Yan Wang; Kaiyuan Sun; Yang Pan; Lan Yi; Da Huo; Yanpeng Wu; Shuaibing Dong; Jinxin Guo; Xiangfeng Dou; Wei Wang; Shuangsheng Wu; Xufang Bai; Hongjie Yu; Quanyi Wang

doi:10.46234/ccdcw2023.020

A Retrospective Modeling Study of the Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the Xinfadi Outbreak in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic - Beijing, China, 2020

China CDC Wkly. 2023 Feb 3;5(5):108-112. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2023.020.

Authors

Yan Wang¹, Kaiyuan Sun², Yang Pan³, Lan Yi⁴, Da Huo³, Yanpeng Wu⁴, Shuaibing Dong³, Jinxin Guo¹, Xiangfeng Dou³, Wei Wang¹, Shuangsheng Wu³, Xufang Bai¹, Hongjie Yu^{1

4}, Quanyi Wang³

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Municipality, China.
² Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
³ Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing Municipality, China.
⁴ Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai Municipality, China.

Abstract

What is already known about this topic?: China has repeatedly contained multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks through a comprehensive set of targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of such NPIs has not been systematically assessed.

What is added by this report?: A multilayer deployment of case isolation, contact tracing, targeted community lockdowns, and mobility restrictions could potentially contain outbreaks caused by the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain, without the requirement of city-wide lockdowns. Mass testing could further aid in the efficacy and speed of containment.

What are the implications for public health practice?: Pursuing containment in a timely fashion at the beginning of the pandemic, before the virus had the opportunity to spread and undergo extensive adaptive evolution, could help in averting an overall pandemic disease burden and be socioeconomically cost-effective.

Keywords: Agent-based model; Containment; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; SARS-CoV-2.

Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2023.

Grants and funding

Supported by grants from the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82130093) and Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project (ZD2021CY001)