Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study

Abstract

Background: To plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.

Methods: Following the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.

Findings: The projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals of improving life expectancy will be achieved (79 years in 2030, and over 80 years in 2035). At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035 with an 81% probability of reaching 90 years, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which all have more than a 50% probability of surpassing 90 years. Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77% probability of life expectancy being over 83 years, the highest provincial life expectancy in mainland China in 2019. The projected gains in life expectancy are mainly derived from older individuals (aged ≥65 years), except those in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai (for men), in which the main contributions come from younger (0-29 years) or middle-aged (30-64 years) individuals.

Interpretation: Life expectancy in mainland China and its provinces has a high probability of continuing to increase through to 2035. Adequate policy planning of social and health services will be needed.

Funding: China National Natural Science Foundation and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province.