Spatiotemporal characteristics and determinants of agricultural carbon offset rate in China based on the geographic detector

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the agricultural carbon offset rate (ACOR) and the reasons that shape its differentiation characteristics in China. To achieve this objective, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and geographic detector model are employed in this study. The results show that there are some differences in ACOR among regions in China. Interregional differences are the main source of their overall variation. Excluding the spatial conditions, the ACOR of each province in the sample period shows low mobility characteristics. Considering the spatial conditions, there is convergence in the lower-middle neighborhoods. The three-year lag period did not significantly affect the interaction of ACOR between regions under the accession time horizon. At the aggregate level, the spatial and temporal divergence in China's ACOR is driven by urbanization rate, agricultural fiscal expenditure, and rural education level. As for the regional level, the scale of household farmland operation plays a greater role in determining the spatiotemporal variation of the eastern and central regions' ACOR. While urbanization rate is more determinant for the western region, the interaction between any two factors has significantly higher explanatory power for the spatial and temporal variation of ACOR than the single factor.

Keywords: Agricultural carbon offset rate; Determinants; Dynamic evolution; Spatiotemporal characteristics.