A noninvasive nomogram model based on CT features to predict DNA mismatch repair deficiency in gastric cancer

Abstract

Objectives: DNA mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) status has served as a positive predictive biomarker for immunotherapy and long-term prognosis in gastric cancer (GC). The aim of the present study was to develop a computed tomography (CT)-based nomogram for preoperatively predicting mismatch repair (MMR) status in GC.

Methods: Data from a total of 159 GC patients between January 2020 and July 2021 with dMMR GC (n=53) and MMR-proficient (pMMR) GC (n=106) confirmed by postoperative immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent abdominal contrast-enhanced CT. Significant clinical and CT imaging features associated with dMMR GC were extracted through univariate and multivariate analyses. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, decision curve analysis (DCA) and internal validation of the cohort data were performed.

Results: The nomogram contained four potential predictors of dMMR GC, including gender (odds ratio [OR] 9.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.78-28.20, P < 0.001), age (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.36-8.50, P = 0.010), tumor size (OR 5.66, 95% CI 2.12-16.27, P < 0.001) and normalized tumor enhancement ratio (NTER) (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.06-0.38, P < 0.001). Using an optimal cutoff value of 6.6 points, the nomogram provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.895 and an accuracy of 82.39% in predicting dMMR GC. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong consistency between the predicted risk and observed dMMR GC. The DCA justified the relatively good performance of the nomogram model.

Conclusion: The CT-based nomogram holds promise as a noninvasive, concise and accurate tool to predict MMR status in GC patients, which can assist in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: gastric cancer; microsatellite instability; mismatch repair deficiency; nomograms; tomography.