Migration of Risk Classification Between the JAES Versus ATA guidelines for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to investigate outcomes in the same cohort of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) risk-stratified according to the Japan Association of Endocrine Surgery (JAES) and American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines.

Methods: A total of 1044 patients with PTC who underwent initial thyroidectomy at Yokohama City University Medical Center between January 2000 and June 2022 were included.

Results: According to the JAES guidelines, 480 (46%), 386 (37%), and 178 (17%) patients were classified as low, intermediate, or high risk, respectively. Furthermore, according to the ATA guidelines, 590 (57%), 261 (25%), and 193 (18%) patients were reclassified as low, intermediate, or high risk, respectively. Among 1044 patients with PTC, the 10-year cause-specific survival (CSS) rates of patients with JAES low and intermediate risk were 99.7 and 98.6%, respectively, and there was no statistically difference (p = 0.096). However, the 10-year CSS rates of patients with ATA low and intermediate risk were 100 and 99.5%, respectively (p = 0.007). Among 1001 patients with M0 PTC, the 10-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) rates of patients with JAES intermediate and high risk were 94.2, and 76.7%, respectively (p < 0.001). However, the 10-year DMFS rates of patients with ATA intermediate and high risk were 88.1 and 86.6%, respectively (p = 0.233), and there was no statistically difference.

Conclusions: Both JAES and ATA risk classifications properly stratified the PTC patients. Furthermore, the ATA risk classification more precisely extracted patients with better and worse prognoses.