Implications for infectious disease models of heterogeneous mixing on control thresholds

J Math Biol. 2023 Mar 8;86(4):53. doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-01886-9.

Abstract

Mixing among sub-populations, as well as heterogeneity in characteristics affecting their reproduction numbers, must be considered when evaluating public health interventions to prevent or control infectious disease outbreaks. In this overview, we apply a linear algebraic approach to re-derive some well-known results pertaining to preferential within- and proportionate among-group contacts in compartmental models of pathogen transmission. We give results for the meta-population effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) assuming different levels of vaccination in the sub-populations. Specifically, we unpack the dependency of [Formula: see text] on the fractions of contacts reserved for individuals within one's own subgroup and, by obtaining implicit expressions for the partial derivatives of [Formula: see text], we show that these increase as this preferential-mixing fraction increases in any sub-population.

Keywords: Dominant eigenvalue; Implicit function; Mixing; Perron-Frobenius; Reproduction number.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Communicable Diseases* / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Epidemiological Models
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Vaccination