A comparative study of collision types between automated and conventional vehicles using Bayesian probabilistic inferences

Abstract

Introduction: Automated vehicle (AV) technology is a promising technology for improving the efficiency of traffic operations and reducing emissions. This technology has the potential to eliminate human error and significantly improve highway safety. However, little is known about AV safety issues due to limited crash data and relatively fewer AVs on the roadways. This study provides a comparative analysis between AVs and conventional vehicles on the factors leading to different types of collisions.

Method: A Bayesian Network (BN) fitted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was used to achieve the study objective. Four years (2017-2020) of AV and conventional vehicle crash data on California roads were used. The AV crash dataset was acquired from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, while conventional vehicle crashes were obtained from the Transportation Injury Mapping System database. A buffer of 50 feet was used to associate each AV crash and conventional vehicle crash; a total of 127 AV crashes and 865 conventional vehicle crashes were used for analysis.

Results: Our comparative analysis of the associated features suggests that AVs are 43% more likely to be involved in rear-end crashes. Further, AVs are 16% and 27% less likely to be involved in sideswipe/broadside and other types of collisions (head-on, hitting an object, etc.), respectively, when compared to conventional vehicles. The variables associated with the increased likelihood of rear-end collisions for AVs include signalized intersections and lanes with less than 45 mph speed limit.

Conclusions: Although AVs are found to improve safety on the road in most types of collisions by limiting human error leading to vehicle crashes, the current state of the technology shows that safety aspects still need improvement.

Keywords: Automated vehicles; Bayesian networks; Traffic crashes severity.