How to simulate future scenarios of urban stormwater management? A novel framework coupling climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure development

Haishun Xu; Tongxin Zhong; Yugang Chen; Jinguang Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162399

How to simulate future scenarios of urban stormwater management? A novel framework coupling climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure development

Sci Total Environ. 2023 May 20:874:162399. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162399. Epub 2023 Feb 27.

Authors

Haishun Xu¹, Tongxin Zhong², Yugang Chen³, Jinguang Zhang²

Affiliations

¹ The College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China. Electronic address: xuhaishun@njfu.edu.cn.
² The College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
³ The College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China.

PMID: 36858223
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162399

Abstract

Climate change, urbanization, and green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) planning policies lead to uncertainties in future urban sustainability. Coupling multiple influencing factors such as climate change, urbanization, and GSI development, this study proposes a novel framework for simulating future scenarios of urban stormwater. Subsequently, the changes in annual surface runoff and runoff pollutants in Shanghai's new and old urban areas were compared and analyzed based on 35 typical future and seven baseline scenarios. The following results were obtained: 1) The runoff control rate of the new urban area was significantly higher than that of the old urban area before GSI construction. After GSI construction, both areas could control stormwater runoff and pollutants, while the decline in efficiency in GSI facilities enormously impacted the old area. 2) Surface runoff in the new urban area was mainly affected by urbanization, while climate change was a major factor in the old urban area; runoff pollutants in new and old urban areas were mainly affected by urbanization, and the change in pollutants in new areas was more pronounced. 3) GSI facilities were unlikely to guarantee the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in scenarios where the efficiency of GSI facilities decreases. In old urban areas, the more extreme climate change and urbanization were, the more significant the effect of improving stormwater management facilities. Our findings showed that future studies on stormwater management should specifically consider the different characteristics of new and old urban regions, pay attention to the maintenance and management of GSI facilities, and build adaptive strategies to cope with climate change, urbanization, and GSI facility destruction.

Keywords: Climate change; Green Stormwater Infrastructure planning; Scenario simulation; Storm Water Management Model; Urbanization.