The evaluation of the sustainable development of resource-based cities is still one of the hotspots in today's social research. Taking Jining, Shandong Province, as the research object, this work combines a relevant emergy evaluation index system with system dynamics, establishes a resource-based city emergy flow system dynamics model, and studies sustainable development path in the next planning year. In the work, the key factors affecting the sustainable development of Jining are obtained through the coupling of regression and SD sensitivity analysis, and some scenarios are set up by combining them with the local 14th Five-year plan. Besides, the appropriate scenario (M-L-H-H) for Jining's future sustainable development is chosen in accordance with regional circumstances. That is, during the 14th Five-year Plan period, the appropriate development ranges for the growth rate of social fixed assets investment, the growth rate of raw coal emergy, the growth rate of grain emergy and the reduction rate of solid waste emergy are 17.5-18.3%, - 4.0 to - 3.2%, 1.8-2.6% and 4-4.8%. The methodology system constructed in this article can serve as a reference for similar studies, and the research findings can aid the government in formulating pertinent plans for resource-based cities.
Keywords: Emergy; Monte Carlo simulation; Regression analysis; Scenario combination; Sustainability; System dynamics.
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