Dining-Out Behavior as a Proxy for the Superspreading Potential of SARS-CoV-2 Infections: Modeling Analysis

Abstract

Background: While many studies evaluated the reliability of digital mobility metrics as a proxy of SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential, none examined the relationship between dining-out behavior and the superspreading potential of COVID-19.

Objective: We employed the mobility proxy of dining out in eateries to examine this association in Hong Kong with COVID-19 outbreaks highly characterized by superspreading events.

Methods: We retrieved the illness onset date and contact-tracing history of all laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from February 16, 2020, to April 30, 2021. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R_t) and dispersion parameter (k), a measure of superspreading potential, and related them to the mobility proxy of dining out in eateries. We compared the relative contribution to the superspreading potential with other common proxies derived by Google LLC and Apple Inc.

Results: A total of 6391 clusters involving 8375 cases were used in the estimation. A high correlation between dining-out mobility and superspreading potential was observed. Compared to other mobility proxies derived by Google and Apple, the mobility of dining-out behavior explained the highest variability of k (ΔR-sq=9.7%, 95% credible interval: 5.7% to 13.2%) and R_t (ΔR-sq=15.7%, 95% credible interval: 13.6% to 17.7%).

Conclusions: We demonstrated that there was a strong link between dining-out behaviors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. The methodological innovation suggests a further development using digital mobility proxies of dining-out patterns to generate early warnings of superspreading events.

Keywords: COVID-19; contact tracing; digital health surveillance; digital surveillance; disease spread; dispersion; public health; superspreading; surveillance; unlinked.