Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling

Arsène Brunelle Sandie; Mathurin Cyrille Tejiokem; Cheikh Mbacké Faye; Achta Hamadou; Aristide Abah Abah; Serge Sadeuh Mbah; Paul Alain Tagnouokam-Ngoupo; Richard Njouom; Sara Eyangoh; Ngu Karl Abanda; Maryam Diarra; Slimane Ben Miled; Maurice Tchuente; Jules Brice Tchatchueng-Mbougua

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.02.001

Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling

Infect Dis Model. 2023 Mar;8(1):228-239. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.02.001. Epub 2023 Feb 8.

Authors

Arsène Brunelle Sandie^{1

2}, Mathurin Cyrille Tejiokem², Cheikh Mbacké Faye¹, Achta Hamadou², Aristide Abah Abah³, Serge Sadeuh Mbah², Paul Alain Tagnouokam-Ngoupo², Richard Njouom², Sara Eyangoh², Ngu Karl Abanda², Maryam Diarra⁴, Slimane Ben Miled⁵, Maurice Tchuente^{6

7}, Jules Brice Tchatchueng-Mbougua^{2

7}

Affiliations

¹ African Population and Health Research Center, West Africa Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal.
² Centre Pasteur du Cameroon, membre du Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur, Cameroon.
³ Direction de la lutte contre les Maladies épidémiques et les pandémies, Ministère de la santé publique, Cameroon.
⁴ Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal.
⁵ Institut Pasteur de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.
⁶ Fondation pour la recherche l'ingénierie et l'innovation, Cameroon.
⁷ IRD UMI 209 UMMISCO, University of Yaounde I, P.O. Box 337, Yaounde, Cameroon.

Abstract

Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.

Keywords: ACF, Autocorrelation Function; AIC, Akaike information criterion; COVID-19; COVID-19, Coronavirus Disease 2019; Cameroon; Forecasting; MAE, Mean Absolute Error; MAPE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error; MASE, Mean Absolute Scaled Error; ME, Mean Error; MPE, Mean Percentage Error; MRP, Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification; Observed; PACF, Partial Autocorrelation Function; PLACARD, Platform for Collecting, Analyzing and Reporting Data; Post-stratification; SARIMA, Seasonal Autoregressive integrated moving average; SARS-CoV-2, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2; Underestimated.