Evaluation of the effectiveness of maternal immunization against pertussis in Alberta using agent-based modeling: A Canadian immunization research network study

Karsten Hempel; Wade McDonald; Nathaniel D Osgood; David Fisman; Scott A Halperin; Natasha Crowcroft; Nicola P Klein; Pejman Rohani; Alexander Doroshenko

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.071

Evaluation of the effectiveness of maternal immunization against pertussis in Alberta using agent-based modeling: A Canadian immunization research network study

Vaccine. 2023 Apr 6;41(15):2430-2438. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.071. Epub 2023 Feb 10.

Authors

Karsten Hempel¹, Wade McDonald², Nathaniel D Osgood³, David Fisman⁴, Scott A Halperin⁵, Natasha Crowcroft⁶, Nicola P Klein⁷, Pejman Rohani⁸, Alexander Doroshenko⁹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Medicine, Division of Preventive Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Electronic address: karsten.hempel@gmail.com.
² Department of Computer Sciences, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. Electronic address: gwm762@mail.usask.ca.
³ Department of Computer Sciences, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
⁴ Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: david.fisman@utoronto.ca.
⁵ Departments of Pediatrics, Microbiology and Immunology, Canadian Center for Vaccinology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Electronic address: scott.halperin@dal.ca.
⁶ World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: natasha.crowcroft@utoronto.ca.
⁷ Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA. Electronic address: nicola.klein@kp.org.
⁸ Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA. Electronic address: rohani@uga.edu.
⁹ Department of Medicine, Division of Preventive Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Electronic address: adoroshe@ualberta.ca.

PMID: 36775775
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.071

Abstract

Introduction: The re-emergence of pertussis has occurred in the past two decades in developed countries. The highest morbidity and mortality is seen among infants. Vaccination in pregnancy is recommended to reduce the pertussis burden in infants.

Methods: We developed and validated an agent-based model to characterize pertussis epidemiology in Alberta. We computed programmatic effectiveness of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy (PVE) in relation to maternal vaccine coverage and pertussis disease reporting thresholds. We estimated the population preventable fraction (PFP) of different levels of maternal vaccine coverage against counterfactual "no-vaccination" scenario. We modeled the effect of immunological blunting and measured protection through interruption of exposure pathways.

Results: PVE was inversely related to duration of passive immunity from maternal immunization across most simulations. In the scenario of 50% maternal vaccine coverage, PVE was 87% (95% quantiles 82-91%), with PFP of 44% (95% quantiles 41-45%). For monthly age intervals of 0-2, 2-4, 4-6 and 6-12, PVE ranged between 82 and 99%, and PFP ranged between 41 and 49%. At 75% maternal vaccine coverage, PVE and PFP were 90% (95% quantiles 86-92%) and 68% (95% quantiles 65-69%), respectively. At 50% maternal vaccine coverage and 10% blunting, PVE and PFP were 86% (95% quantiles 77-87%) and 43% (95% quantiles 39-44%), respectively, while at 50% blunting, the corresponding values of PVE and PFP were 76% (95% quantiles 70-81%) and 38% (95% quantiles 35-40%). PVE attributable to interruption of exposure pathways was 54-57%.

Conclusions: Our model predicts significant reduction in future pertussis cases in infants due to maternal vaccination, with immunological blunting slightly moderating its effectiveness. The model is most sensitive to maternal vaccination coverage. The interruption of exposure pathways plays a role in the reduction of pertussis burden in infants due to maternal immunization. The effect of maternal immunization on population other than infants remains to be elucidated.

Keywords: Agent-based model; Computer simulation; Epidemiology; Pertussis; Pregnancy; Vaccination.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Alberta / epidemiology
Female
Humans
Infant
Pertussis Vaccine
Pregnancy
Systems Analysis
Vaccination
Whooping Cough* / epidemiology
Whooping Cough* / prevention & control

Substances

Pertussis Vaccine

Grants and funding

001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International