A mathematical model of protein subunits COVID-19 vaccines

Samaneh Gholami; Chapin S Korosec; Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi; David W Dick; Morgan Craig; Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi; Hsu Kiang Ooi; Jane M Heffernan

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2023.108970

A mathematical model of protein subunits COVID-19 vaccines

Math Biosci. 2023 Apr:358:108970. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.108970. Epub 2023 Feb 10.

Authors

Samaneh Gholami¹, Chapin S Korosec², Suzan Farhang-Sardroodi³, David W Dick², Morgan Craig⁴, Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi⁵, Hsu Kiang Ooi⁵, Jane M Heffernan²

Affiliations

¹ Modelling Infection & Immunity Lab, Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: sama20@yorku.ca.
² Modelling Infection & Immunity Lab, Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
³ Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; Modelling Infection & Immunity Lab, Centre for Disease Modelling, Mathematics & Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
⁴ Sainte-Justine University Hospital Research Centre and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
⁵ Digital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Abstract

We consider a general mathematical model for protein subunit vaccine with a focus on the MF59-adjuvanted spike glycoprotein-clamp vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, and use the model to study immunological outcomes in the humoral and cell-mediated arms of the immune response from vaccination. The mathematical model is fit to vaccine clinical trial data. We elucidate the role of Interferon-γ and Interleukin-4 in stimulating the immune response of the host. Model results, and results from a sensitivity analysis, show that a balance between the T_H1 and T_H2 arms of the immune response is struck, with the T_H1 response being dominant. The model predicts that two-doses of the vaccine at 28 days apart will result in approximately 85% humoral immunity loss relative to peak immunity approximately 6 months post dose 1.

Keywords: Adaptive immune response; COVID-19; IgG antibody; Mathematical modeling; Neutralizing Antibody (NAb); Protein subunit-based vaccine; SARS-CoV-2.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Antibodies, Viral
COVID-19 Vaccines*
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Humans
Interferon-gamma
Protein Subunits
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination

Substances

COVID-19 Vaccines
Protein Subunits
Interferon-gamma
Antibodies, Viral

Grants and funding

CIHR/Canada