Uncertainty assessment of spatiotemporal distribution and variation in regional soil heavy metals based on spatiotemporal sequential Gaussian simulation

Abstract

Revealing the spatiotemporal (ST) distribution and changes in regional soil heavy metals is significant to soil pollution control and management. However, most of the ST analysis models in the existing studies ignore the uncertainty of ST changes in soil heavy metals, making their results unreliable. In this study, using soil Pb collected from 2016 to 2019 in a mining city in China as case data, an ST sequential Gaussian simulation (STSGS) is proposed to reveal the ST distribution and variation in heavy metals in regional soils and their uncertainties. Firstly, the ST variogram was analysed and fitted using a theoretical variogram model integrating the experimental variations at the ST scale. Secondly, 500 simulation realisations with random access path were generated by the ST Kriging method. Considering the obtained 500 simulation realisations, a series of ST analysis methods was proposed and employed to reveal the ST distribution and changes with uncertainty assessment of regional soil heavy metals. The main results are as follows. (1) For the whole study region, soil Pb content initially increased and then decreased from 2016 to 2019. The average probability of soil Pb exceeding 90 mg/kg was 0.121, 0.214, 0.312 and 0.291 in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively, whereas the average probability of always exceeding 90 mg/kg in the 4 years was only 0.032. (2) From 2016 to 2019, the area proportions of the increase and decrease of soil Pb content in the study area were 87.2% and 12.8%, respectively. However, according to the standardised statistic, only 0.161% and 8.72% of the total areas were determined to have a significant decrease and increase in soil Pb content from 2016 to 2019. (3) From 2016 to 2019, the areas with a greater than 0.6 probability of soil Pb concentration decreasing by more than 5 mg/kg and increasing by more than 20, 40 and 80 mg/kg accounted for 4.96%, 32.2%, 11.5% and only 1.91% of the total study region, respectively. The incremental high-probability areas were primarily those where Pb pollution was already serious. Finally, the advantages of the proposed STSGS method were summarised.

Keywords: Geostatistics; Soil heavy metal; Spatiotemporal; Uncertainty.