To achieve the goal of urban carbon dioxide emission reduction, how to increase carbon sequestration has become a top priority. The biological sink is mainly divided into green carbon sink and blue carbon sink. Coastal cities have two kinds of carbon sinks. There, the study of carbon sinks in coastal cities is the primary choice to cope with climate change. Therefore, this study chooses coastal cities with primary industries including agriculture, fishery, and forestry as the study subjects. The LMDI (Log-Mean Divisia Index) method and multiple regression prediction models were used to explore the low-carbon countermeasures which increase urban net carbon sink from the perspective of influencing factors and future potential. The study found that the average output value of employees in the primary industry is the main driving factor, and the change in the purchasing power of unit carbon sinks and the change in the proportion of employees in the primary industry have inhibited the increase in net carbon sinks. Projections based on the primary industry's output and afforestation area as independent variables show an overall upward trend in net carbon sinks, reaching 15.70 million tons of net carbon sinks in 2060, offsetting 10-20% of total carbon emissions in the same year. Based on the calculation results, this paper puts forward some corresponding countermeasures to increase carbon sinks. This paper provides a theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of coastal cities in China, and the strategies can be also expanded to other cities with similar resources around the world.
Keywords: Divisia index; Multiple regression model; Net carbon sink potential; Urban primary industry.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.