Accuracy of mutual predictions of plant and microbial communities vary along a successional gradient in an alpine glacier forefield

Abstract

Receding glaciers create virtually uninhabited substrates waiting for initial colonization of bacteria, fungi and plants. These glacier forefields serve as an ideal ecosystem for studying transformations in community composition and diversity over time and the interactions between taxonomic groups in a dynamic landscape. In this study, we investigated the relationships between the composition and diversity of bacteria, fungi, and plant communities as well as environmental factors along a successional gradient. We used random forest analysis assessing how well the composition and diversity of taxonomic groups and environmental factors mutually predict each other. We did not identify a single best indicator for all taxonomic and environmental properties, but found specific predictors to be most accurate for each taxon and environmental factor. The accuracy of prediction varied considerably along the successional gradient, highlighting the dynamic environmental conditions along the successional gradient that may also affect biotic interactions across taxa. This was also reflected by the high accuracy of predictions of plot age by all taxa. Next to plot age, our results indicate a strong importance of pH and temperature in structuring microbial and plant community composition. In addition, taxonomic groups predicted the community composition of each other more accurately than environmental factors, which may either suggest that these groups similarly respond to other not measured environmental factors or that direct interactions between taxa shape the composition of their communities. In contrast, diversity of taxa was not well predicted, suggesting that community composition of one taxonomic group is not a strong driver of the diversity of another group. Our study provides insights into the successional development of multidiverse communities shaped by complex interactions between taxonomic groups and the environment.

Keywords: bacteria; environment; fungi; plants; predictive models; succession.