Movement restrictions, vaccine coverage, and reduction of the COVID-19 incidence rate in the fourth wave of the pandemic: Analysis results from 63 provinces in Vietnam

Abstract

On April 27, 2021, the fourth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic originating from the Delta variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began in Vietnam. The adoption of travel restrictions, coupled with rapid vaccination and mask-wearing, is a global strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Although trade-off between health and economic development are unavoidable in this situation, little evidence that is specific to Vietnam in terms of movement restrictions, vaccine coverage, and real-time COVID-19 cases is available. Our research question is whether travel restrictions and vaccine coverage are related to changes in the incidence of COVID-19 in each province in Vietnam. We used Google's Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different mobility types, along with reports of vaccine coverage and COVID-19 cases retrieved from publicly and freely available datasets, for this research. Starting from the 50th case per province and incorporating a 14-day period to account for exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (from day 27 to 04-03/11/2021) and the ratio of the number of new confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases in the past 14 days of indexing (the potentially contagious group in the population) per million population by making use of LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of the surveyed provinces, a reduction of up to 40% in commuting movement (to the workplace, transit stations, grocery stores, and entertainment venues) was related to a reduction in the number of cases, especially in the early stages of the pandemic. Once both movement and disease prevalence had been mitigated, further restrictions offered little additional benefit. These results indicate the importance of early and decisive actions during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Vietnam; fourth wave; movement restrictions; vaccine coverage.