Machine learning improves mortality prediction in three-vessel disease

Abstract

Background and aims: Risk stratification for three-vessel coronary artery disease (3VD) remains an important clinical challenge. In this study, we utilized machine learning (ML), which can address the limitations of traditional regression-based models, to develop a novel model to assess mortality risk in patients with 3VD.

Methods: This study was based on a prospective cohort of 8943 participants with 3VD consecutively enrolled between 2004 and 2011. An ML-derived random forest model was trained and tested to predict 4-year mortality. The predictability of the model was compared with that of an established model, the Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery score II (SSII), among 3VD patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and medical therapy (MT) alone.

Results: The all-cause mortality was 7.5% (667 patients) over the 4-year follow-up period. The correlation-based feature selection algorithm selected 18 of the 94 features to develop the ML model. In the testing dataset, the ML-derived model achieved an area under the curve of 0.81 for 4-year mortality prediction. Its predictability was significantly better than that of the SSII among patients undergoing PCI (0.80 vs. 0.70, p < 0.001) or CABG (0.80 vs. 0.67, p < 0.001). The model also outperformed the SSII in patients receiving MT alone (ML: 0.75 vs. SSII for PCI: 0.70 or SSII for CABG: 0.66, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: This ML-based approach exhibited better performance in risk stratification for 3VD compared with the conventional method. Further validation studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Keywords: Coronary disease; Machine learning; Risk assessment.