Modeling the resilience of urban mobility when exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative system dynamics approach

Daniela Vanessa Rodriguez Lara; Paul Pfaffenbichler; Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2023.104411

Modeling the resilience of urban mobility when exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative system dynamics approach

Sustain Cities Soc. 2023 Apr:91:104411. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2023.104411. Epub 2023 Jan 18.

Authors

Daniela Vanessa Rodriguez Lara¹, Paul Pfaffenbichler², Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-carlense, 400, São Carlos, São Paulo 13566-590, Brazil.
² Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter Jordan Straße 82, Vienna, Vienna 1190, Austria.

Abstract

In December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was detected in Wuhan, China. Due to the rapid spread of the disease, containment measures were adopted, which caused unprecedent shifts in individual mobility. Although some studies explored the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel patterns and resilience of transport systems based on different analysis techniques, there is a lack of studies addressing the impacts of the pandemic on the sustainability and resilience of urban mobility systems using in-depth and holistic methods, such as system dynamics. This research aims to characterize the dynamics present in urban mobility systems when exposed to pandemics and analyze the changes needed for systems to increase their resilience to pandemics using qualitative system dynamics modeling. The framework comprises the characterization of cause-and-effect relationships and the creation of systems' causal loop diagrams (CLD) in their basic state of functionality, when affected by pandemics, and still operating owing to its resilience. Our findings indicated that the CLD of a resilient system is driven by strategic preparedness and response plans, as well as research and development, which balance the spread of the pandemic and increase support on technological strengths and the activities performed from home.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Causal loop diagrams; Qualitative modeling; Sustainable cities; System dynamics; Urban mobility resilience.