The production of shale gas in China has repercussions for the global energy landscape and carbon neutrality. However, limited and threatened water resources may hinder the expansion of shale-derived natural gas, one of China's most promising development prospects. Coupling historical trends with policy guidance, we project that baseline water stress will intensify in two-thirds of China's provinces in the next decade. By 2035, annual water use for shale gas hydraulic fracturing activities is likely to increase to 16-35 million m3, with 13.8-23.7 million m3 of wastewater produced annually to extract 38-48 billion m3 of gas from ∼4800 shale gas wells. Analysis suggests that this projection is based on previously underestimated geological constraints (e.g., deep continental facies) in shale gas development in China. Nevertheless, forecasts suggest that the water footprint of shale development will become impossible to ignore, particularly in drought-stricken areas, indicating the potential risk of competition for water among shale development, domestic use, food production, and ecological protection. Meanwhile, the annual wastewater management market will increase to $0.2 billion by 2035. Our study suggests a critical need to direct attention to the (shale) energy-water nexus and develop multi-pronged policies to facilitate China's transition to carbon neutrality.
Keywords: Carbon neutral; China; Hydraulic fracturing; Shale gas; Water management.
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