The implementation of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an essential measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and actively respond to climate change. The net carbon sink efficiency (NCSE), as an effective tool to measure the carbon budget capacity, is important in guiding the carbon emission reduction among cities and the maintenance of sustainable economic development. In this paper, NCSE values are used as a measure of the carbon budget capacity to measure the spatiotemporal evolution of the carbon neutral capacity of three major urban agglomerations (UAs) in China during 2007-2019. The clustering characteristics of the NCSE of these three major UAs, and various influencing factors such as carbon emissions, are analyzed using a spatiotemporal cube model and spatial and temporal series clustering. The results reveal the following. (1) From the overall perspective, the carbon emissions of the three major UAs mostly exhibited a fluctuating increasing trend and a general deficit during the study period. Moreover, the carbon sequestration showed a slightly decreasing trend, but not much fluctuation in general. (2) From the perspective of UAs, the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UA are dominated by low-low clustering in space and time; this clustering pattern is mainly concentrated in Beijing, Xingtai, Handan, and Langfang. The NCSE values in the Yangtze River Delta UA centered on Shanghai, Nanjing, and the surrounding cities exhibited high-high clustering in 2019, while Changzhou, Ningbo, and the surrounding cities exhibited low-high clustering. The NCSE values of the remaining cities in the Pearl River Delta UA, namely Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai, exhibited multi-cluster patterns that were not spatially and temporally significant, and the spatiotemporal clusters were found to be scattered. (3) In terms of the influencing factors, the NCSE of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UA was found to be significantly influenced by the industrial structure and GDP per capita, that of the Yangtze River Delta UA was found to be significantly influenced by the industrial structure, and that of the Pearl River Delta UA was found to be significantly influenced by the population density and technology level. These findings can provide a reference and suggestions for the governments of different UAs to formulate differentiated carbon-neutral policies.
Keywords: NCSE; carbon budget; influencing factors; urban agglomerations.