Nonlinear and spatial spillover effects of urbanization on air pollution and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Based on Panel data collected from 2011 to 2020 targeted to 50 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin, this paper adopted standard deviation ellipse and spatial Dubin model to explore the nonlinear effects and spatial spillover effects of urbanization on air pollution and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the degree of air pollution in the southeast of the Yellow River Basin is higher than that in the northwest of the Yellow River Basin, the distribution range of air pollution is shrinking, the concentration of ecological resilience is enhanced, and the ecological environment is developing for the better. There is a significant U-shaped relationship between urbanization and air pollution in the Yellow River Basin, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and ecological resilience. For every 1% increase in urbanization, air pollution decreases by 0.0873%, ecological resilience increases by 0.4046%. For every 1% increase in the square term of urbanization, air pollution increases by 0.2271%, ecological resilience decreases by 0.1789%. The urbanization of the Yellow River Basin has a spatial spillover effect on air pollution and ecological resilience, and urbanization has a significant negative impact on the ecological environment of neighboring cities. The robustness of the above conclusions is verified by introduce an inverse distance weight matrix replacing the spatial weight matrix.

Keywords: Air pollution; Ecological resilience; Spatial Dubin model; Standard deviation ellipse; Urbanization.