Survival benefit of resection surgery for lung adenocarcinoma with bone metastases and a post-operative prognosis nomogram establishment and validation

Hanqing Zhao; Wenqi Li; Xiangnan Li; Zheng Ding; Song Zhao

doi:10.21037/jtd-22-1514

Survival benefit of resection surgery for lung adenocarcinoma with bone metastases and a post-operative prognosis nomogram establishment and validation

J Thorac Dis. 2022 Dec;14(12):4877-4893. doi: 10.21037/jtd-22-1514.

Authors

Hanqing Zhao^#¹, Wenqi Li^#², Xiangnan Li¹, Zheng Ding¹, Song Zhao¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
² Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: Surgical resection is not usually recommended for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients with bone metastases. However, the criteria for surgery are constantly being adjusted and there is a need to focus on the prognostic role of cancer-directed surgery (CDS) for bone metastatic LUAD patients investigate the factors influencing survival of CDS. We determined the survival benefit of CDS for LUAD patients with bone metastases and to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) for patients after surgery.

Methods: LUAD patients with bone metastases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010-2015 were included and divided into CDS and non-CDS groups. The propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance baseline characteristics. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests to compare cancer-specific survival (CSS) and OS between the two groups. Patients underwent CDS were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts to develop and validate a nomogram model to predict postoperative prognosis outcome-OS.

Results: Patients who underwent CDS had a better OS and CSS than those who did not underwent CDS (e.g., 1-year OS rate: 56.9% vs. 30.1%). Independent prognostic factors were selected by Cox regression analysis for CDS patients including age, sex, race, histological grade, N stage, and chemotherapy, and a nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS after surgery according to the prognostic factors. The calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the nomogram showed the model had a high predictive accuracy. [Area under the curve (AUC) at 1, 2, and 3 years in the training cohort were 0.735, 0.756 and 0.782, and in the validation cohort were 0.703, 0.758 and 0.836, respectively]. In addition, patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups based on prognostic scores, and Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant differences in prognosis between the two groups.

Conclusions: These results indicated that patients with bone metastasis of LUAD received survival benefit from CDS. The prognostic nomograms could assist clinicians in specifying individualized assessments, but further research is needed.

Keywords: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD); SEER database; bone metastasis; cancer-directed surgery; nomogram.