Using the MOD13A3 NDVI time series from 2000 to 2020, climate date from 1999 to 2020, and land use type data in 2000 and 2020, the spatio-temporal variation in vegetation cover and the driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities to vegetation variation were analyzed based on Theil-Sen Median analysis, the Mann-Kendall significance test, the multi-collinearity test, residual analysis, and relative analysis. The results showed that the vegetation cover exhibited a fluctuating and increasing trend with a magnitude of 0.0016 a-1 in southwest China from 2000 to 2020. The increasing trend of vegetation cover was mostly significant in the Guangxi Hills and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and slightly significant in the Tibet Plateau. The vegetation cover had increased in the context of climate change and human activities, with an increasing rate of 0.0010 a-1 and 0.0006 a-1, respectively. The vegetation improvement was mostly dominated by the combination effects of climate change and human activities. The vegetation improvement was dominated by climate change, and the relative role of climate change reached 61.86%. What is more, the vegetation degradation was dominated by human activities, and the relative role of human activities reached 58.39%. Vegetation cover was positively related to minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, potential evapotranspiration rate, and relative humidity and negatively related to mean temperature, atmosphere pressure, sunshine duration, warmth index, and humidity index. As a whole, the minimum temperature, sunshine duration, and precipitation were the dominant climate factors affecting the vegetation variation in southwest China. Furthermore, the land use and land cover change were significantly related to vegetation variation in southwest China. The implementation of ecological afforestation projects could be beneficial to regional vegetation improvement, whereas the vegetation degradation was mostly conducted by the built-up land expansion.
Keywords: climate change; human activities; multi-collinearity test; normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI); relative role; vegetation cover.