In seasonal environments, competition among males can drive males to emerge before females. Females, simultaneously, should avoid emerging at times after sufficient male availability. We show that the consequent sexual conflict over timing traits can produce arms races toward ever earlier emergence, if low mate-search efficiency or sperm limitation elevate the latter risk for females. In reality, however, arms races over timing cannot proceed indefinitely as this ignores the relevant ecological context for phenology: the temporal niche of resource availability for offspring development. We model the interaction of natural and sexual selection to predict the sexual conflict load, i.e., the loss of population fitness caused by sexual conflict. We show that selection to avoid matelessness can exacerbate another problem of maladaptation: a temporal mismatch between the organism (e.g., insect) and its resource (e.g., host plant). Load frequently associates with protandry if males can mate multiply, yet lack of multiple mating does not imply zero load. A temporal mismatch can still evolve, where both sexes emerge and mate suboptimally early with respect to the seasonal resource peak, because monogamy does not guarantee that every individual finds one mate, and selection favors early individuals in mate-finding contexts.
Keywords: arms race; phenology; protandry; protogyny; sexual conflict.
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE).