Agricultural water allocation with climate change based on gray wolf optimization in a semi-arid region of China

PeerJ. 2023 Jan 3:11:e14577. doi: 10.7717/peerj.14577. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Background: We quantified and evaluated the allocation of soil and water resources in the Aksu River Basin to measure the consequences of climate change on an agricultural irrigation system.

Methods: We first simulated future climate scenarios in the Aksu River Basin by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). We then formulated the optimal allocation scheme of agricultural water as a multiobjective optimization problem and obtained the Pareto optimal solution using the multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO). Finally, optimal allocations of water and land resources in the basin at different times were obtained using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP).

Results: (1) The SDSM is able to simulate future climate change scenarios in the Aksu River Basin. Evapotranspiration (ET0) will increase significantly with variation as will the amount of available water albeit slightly. (2) To alleviate water pressure, the area of cropland should be reduced by 127.5 km2 under RCP4.5 and 377.2 km2 under RCP8.5 scenarios. (3) To be sustainable, the allocation ratio of forest land and water body should increase to 39% of the total water resource in the Aksu River Basin by 2050.

Keywords: Allocation of land and water resources; Analytic hierarchy process; Climate scenarios; Grey wolf optimization; Multi-objective programming; Semi-arid land.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agricultural Irrigation
  • Agriculture
  • China
  • Climate Change*
  • Water*

Substances

  • Water

Grants and funding

The research was supported by the Grant from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0400208), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51809269), the Farmland Irrigation Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agriculture Co-ordination Project (FIRI2022-02) and the National Cotton Industrial Technology System (CARS-15). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.