How do information and communication technology and urbanization affect carbon emissions? Evidence from 42 selected "Belt and Road Initiative" countries

Abstract

Reducing carbon emissions is key to achieving the 13th UN sustainable development goals. With the acceleration of informatization and urbanization in the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) countries, it is necessary to explore the impact of ICT and urbanization on carbon emissions in the BRI countries. This paper uses the Driscoll-Kraay panel regression method, multi-chain mediation effect model, and panel moment quantile regression method to study the influence channel and heterogeneous impact of ICT, urbanization, and their interaction on carbon emissions in 42 selected BRI countries. The main empirical results reveal the inhibition of ICT and the promotion of urbanization on carbon emissions. Moreover, the integrated development of ICT and urbanization contributes to reducing carbon emissions. Industrial structure upgrading and energy intensity are found to be the channels through which ICT, urbanization, and their interactions affect carbon emissions. In addition, the impact of ICT, urbanization, and their interaction on carbon emissions varies with different measurement indicators and quantiles. Therefore, it is suggested that BRI countries should formulate appropriate ICT development policies according to their conditions, strengthen ICT application, and especially promote the integrated development of ICT and urbanization, to achieve sustainable urban development.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; ICT; Mediating effect; Panel moment quantile regression; Urbanization.